there’s no tomorrow

Begun in 2005, and finally finished in 2012. Better late than never!

 

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46 Responses to there’s no tomorrow

  1. Sex Mahoney says:

    I’ve only been waiting to see this since 2007, so it hasn’t seemed like that long. Well done, sir.

    • dermot says:

      Ironically, I’ve been waiting to finish it since 2007! It’s been one hell of a hill to climb. You think you’re –>|<– this close to completion, then, bloody hell, nowhere near. There were a few false dawns. “Work expands to fill the time allocated to it”, as Parkinson said; very true.

      Not having a drop-dead deadline meant that there was the luxury of being able to tweak, fiddle, and ‘plus’ the thing. The consequence is that the final product is so better than the original that the before/after of some of the shots is terrifying. About a year ago, I developed some new techniques with lighting scenes – using gradients, stronger tones (and was able to integrate these into my second Lynda.com course). Did it on one shot, and it didn’t take too long. Then you think, well, imagine how much better the whole film would look if all the scenes were like that…….

      So, there’s another two or three weeks of adding layers to 34 minutes of animation!

      And about six months ago, watching a tutorial for Cinema 4D, the teacher made a VERY tiny rim on the edge of his model. “Oh what’s the point!” methinks, until he rendered it. That tiny sliver added so much to the render, it was amazing. So, another two months were spent going through the film, adding tiny slivers to edges. And though it’s the kind of touch that you don’t notice, you do “feel” it.I can see it now on the preview shot, on the edges of the curbs (just a pixel or two, but it’s there). Helps to kill that flat, flashy look.

      Anyway, I already am well advanced on another project, and am applying much of the tricks that were picked up on TNT.

      • Sex Mahoney says:

        Definitely paid off. This looks incredible. And a real pleasure to see the elements you have shared previously updated and in context.

        I have shared it every place I can. This was well worth the wait.

        Your work ethic is inspiring.

  2. GreenHoosier says:

    Dermot as of today…after seeing this video fir the first time…You are my newest hero. Thank you for your years of hard work!

    Absolutely fantastic work. I really don’t know exactly what to say to you I am so impressed. I am going to send this to everyone I know. It is truly the most important animated documentary I may have ever seen. I have given speeches and done presentations that cover part of this, but not nearly as well as you have.

    Physicist Dr. Albert Bartlett once said “Man’s greatest shortcoming may be his inability to understand the exponential function.”

    This video may be the best attempt ever to communicate it. Namaste! – Tom

  3. Hello Dermot. I love the film. Thank you for making it and for making it available. I am wondering if I could have your permission (and have access to a high resolution version) to screen this as part of an event I’m planning for April 15 in Lancaster, PA. The event is a unique evening which will feature live original music, film projection and readings from my new novel. The themes are very compatible, and I had been thinking that a short film would be the perfect way to begin the evening. Incidentally, Ireland is my favorite place in the world, and much of my novel is imbued with this affection. All these together lead me to thinking your film would be just about perfect. Would you be open to discussing this? Thanks again for your work. Best of luck in everything.

  4. Kate says:

    I love it! What fantastic work! Great visuals, lovely voice over, perfectly succinct and clear message. I’m sharing this on all my networks.

    Thank you so much for making this, this is exactly the sort of thing we need to get people understanding the situation. It’s brilliant – well done!

  5. Kenjamkov says:

    Awesome job Dermot! I remember when you started this when LATOC was up. I am so glad you finally got it finished. Good on you!

  6. Absolutely the best (and probably the last) film describing Peak Oil and the impending collapse of human industrial civilization ever made. For a decade, all of the leading messengers sounding this alarm, spent countless man hours in pursuit of one goal: “How can I best explain this so that those in pathological denial will have no room to do anything but see the obvious and simple truth?”

    Someone may do better than this someday. But it would require a million times more energy than the returned improvement would provide. In short, it’s not worth it to try to say it better than this.

    This is my ultimate Zombie litmus test. From now on, all I have to do is tell a skeptic to watch this film. If they get it, Welcome Aboard!… If they don’t, they will leave my consciousness immediately and be free to meet their self-chosen Darwinian Deselection; a fate which I and millions of people around a rapidly-awakening world do not intend to share.

  7. Bryan McMillan says:

    Thanks so much for making this. Some sobering info, meticulously organized and footnoted, and adeptly made.

  8. oddsox says:

    Hopeful the 2012 doomsday predictions aren’t correct — it’d be a shame if there WERE no tomorrow after you worked on this for 7 years.

    Still remember the 1975 Time Magazine lead story predicting we’d use up all our oil by 2000.

    Kudos for great effort and animation, though.

    • dermot says:

      Thanks!

      Well, the statement that “we’ve been running out of oil since we discovered it” has been made, and is technically true. The question is not if it runs out (or rather, reaches the point where it’s not worth extracting), but when. By some estimates, light sweet crude peaked in 2006, and the show is being kept on the road by Unconventional natural gas, tar sands, fracking, etc

      Many PO theorists predicted economic ruin as a result of PO (Heinberg did, around 2003). And the economy isn’t exactly on easy street – and seems to reel from one existential crisis to another. Time will tell. I’d prefer to have another few years, as there are a few more movies that I’d like to make before the lights start browning out.

      BTW, the opposite of the 1970s doom is true: since 1950, we’ve been fed dreams of nuclear fusion, flying cars, energy panaceas – but they always seem to be 20 years in the future, for some reason.

      • oddsox says:

        Dermot, yes, I remember the “Futopia” visions of the ’50s and early ’60s. Fins, miracle pills, 100+year lifespans for all.
        They seem to have slowed after JFK’s murder and stopped altogether after the last moon landing.

        The last one I remember was a piece during the ’60s (also written for Time Magazine) that predicted we’d all retire early after working 20-hour weeks because advances in technology and robotics would make life so easy and raise our standard of living such that the need for jobs would become practically obsolete.

        Re: long-term projections of either variety (Doomsday or Futopia) my leanings these days support Chaos Theory.

        Every model has some error inherent within.
        And, over time, new error is introduced from unforeseen forces and circumstances.
        Together, the effect of these errors increases exponentially and eventually destroys long-term conclusions.

  9. Steve Wood says:

    Brilliant! Absolutely brilliant, Dermot!

    I’ve been a big fan ever since I used your tutorials at Lynda.com and after seeing your finished video, I’m totally amazed by your talent. What programs did you use to create this masterpiece? I’ll be posting about this video in the near future and spreading the word through my social networks. Keep up the good work!

  10. Byron says:

    I have been sending people to watch the Bartlett lecture for years. I’ll send a lot of them over to you now. This is a superlative distillation of the key facts.

    Thank you for this. You’ve done a great service, here.

    Good luck with your squirrel traps.

  11. Pingback: There's No Tomorrow - The Pathedral and the Kazoo

  12. Zeb says:

    Absolutely amazing work! The animation is spectacular and the content is chilling! Very well done! Bravo!

  13. Michael says:

    Hi Dermot

    Wow your film is sobering! Well done for 7 years of hard labour. I am impressed by your animation. Very clever, especially the use of scale.

    Have you considered sending it to the likes of the Guardian? It will help to change a few hearts and minds. They could easily do a whole article on it,. It would dispel a few myths and change a lot of opinions. Plus it would help get your work noticed by a larger audience.

    After watching this film I think I am definitely going to do what my girlfriend has been saying for ages and move to the Republic. She is originally from Co Leitrim, so I think I will buy a small farm and a large gun (with plenty of ammo) to keep the “zombies” away when it all goes tits up.

    By the way I am just beginning to learn to animation. What application did you use?3ds Max, Blender, Maya?

    Best Regards

    Michael

    • dermot says:

      Hi Michael, thanks for the comments!

      Well to answer in reverse – the program used to animate was Flash (the older version 8, the final Macromedia release). It’s faster on older hardware, and the newer versions don’t have much stuff for artists/animators to make them worth the cost).

      Some advice on moving, based on personal experience: if you are going, make sure it’s going to make you happy on its own merits. I moved from Ireland to LA in 1993, got sick of SoCal in 2006, and moved to Canada for a year. Didn’t like the winters much, and was close to returning to Ireland, but instead moved back to the US, to Portland OR. Been there since, with occasional trips to LA for work, family. It’s a nice setup. If you do move to Ireland, be sure that you can deal with the negatives as well as the positives – namely the climate, the booze culture, the local corruption, and the incessant low-level hassle that seems to be in the water supply! But there’s a lot to like about Ireland…it’s just one of those things! Great if your GF is a native though.

      I haven’t pushed the film much; one of the groups affiliated with the movie did try to push it, but the press didn’t want to touch it with a yardpole, it seems that the title is a real buzz-kill (in spite of having more than one meaning). Well, this culture is based on denial of reality and denial of death, so this wasn’t a surprise. Still, you’d think that at least ONE paper would have taken an interest by now, but apparently not. It’s Drill, Baby, Drill…

  14. Andrew says:

    Hi Dermot,

    I read that you have licensed your work under a CC non-commercial license. Can I be annoying and ask you which one, specifically? Or maybe even better, post a link to the Creative Commons webpage.

  15. Michael says:

    Hi Dermot

    Thanks for taking the time out to reply. Much appreciated.

    Wow I knew Flash was versatile, but I never realised it could be pushed to create something as good as your film. Well done.

    Yes I am aware of all the issues you highlighted about Ireland and they don’t put me off. I don’t drink so I am lucky there. I would dig a deep well, but there’s plenty of rain in Ireland. The weather is equally as bad in the UK so I wouldn’t be losing anything. As for politicians and councils, I have yet to meet a decent one. Florida would be my 1st choice, if the better half can be convinced to emigrate.

    With regards to your film; I think the presentation is fantastic! Are you done with the film now? I imagine after seven long years you are probably tired of the thing. It’s just I was wondering if any real opponents to the film’s philosophy had given you feedback? So you could counter with a few modifications to the film to make your argument conclusive? Are you with me? I mean an evolution in your argument to the next step, so you invalidate any counter-argument, rejecting the common points people will make (not that I myself am able to immediately think of any)

    Cheers

    Michael

    • Michael says:

      Hi Dermot

      Did you have an answer to my question?

      Best Regards

      Michael

      • dermot says:

        Sorry; caught up in many things right now. The strangest thing – no real hate mail, or nit-picking (you’d think some would have appeared by now). This is good, as a quiet life is a happy one.

        No intention of pursuing this subject further in any case, as even if the movie’s thesis is correct, there’s only so much benefit to be had in continuing with it…and there are other subjects that are taking up my time now. Some work-in-progress on the next project will be posted once it’s in a fit state.

        • Michael says:

          That’s very encouraging Dermot. I look forward to seeing your next project. Once again I must say I am amazed by your inspiring piece of work. It’s uplifting to see another person work really hard and achieve something good and worthwhile. Well done.

  16. Steve Wood says:

    Just a quick question, Dermot.

    What is your process of exporting your breathtaking animations out of flash?
    Any time I try to publish or export anything it becomes an aborted mess.
    If you could share any information it would be greatly appreciated.

    • dermot says:

      Sure: well, it’s no secret that Flash’s video exporting is awful, good enough for testing and previews, but not sufficient for final production. Solution is to select the “export movie” option, then export a PNG sequence. This will create an enormous number of png images, which can then be imported into a video editing program, like Final Cut Pro, Premiere, or After Effects. There, it’s combined with the audio, and you can export the final video.

      With After Effects, you can import swf files as well, as videos, but that’s not always practical – it wouldn’t have worked in this instance, but a png sequence won’t let you down.

      • Steve Wood says:

        Ahh thank you for the insight. I guess I will be saving my change for a yet another program. It’s a nice little money maker Adobe has going for it.

        Can’t wait for your next project to be done.

        Cheers

  17. Prince Merluza says:

    Why can’t we add comments on the youtube vid?

    • dermot says:

      I disabled them because of a dislike of the sorts of comments and arguments that YT generates. They tend to be shallow and unpleasant, and it didn’t seem like a good use of peoples’ time. Apparently it will reduce the number of pageviews, as people don’t come back to follow an exchange, but that’s OK. Better if they go out and get a coffee!

  18. What a beautiful work!!!
    Bravo pour l’animation!
    And thanks for explaining things like this!
    Jean-Marc Heneman
    (Bonjour de Montréal, Québec, Canada!)

  19. richard says:

    hi,
    sir your work is absolutely amazing, i’m so inspired to work harder!
    anyway,i saw your tutorial on lynda.com and i notice you have a different swatch.
    where can we download that kind of swatch? can you give us swatch file if possible?
    thank you sir more power!

  20. David says:

    Quite an eye opener.
    Very well executed. Polished and concise.
    This all being done with Flash is inspiring.
    Cheers, Mate!

  21. Frank Monahan says:

    Hello Dermot,
    Enjoyed the movie. It was a bit scary but more than likely, true. I can’t help being left being terribly pessimistic about the future of the planet. Oh well. I guess I’ve got to leave this world someday, somehow. Sincerely, Frank

    • dermot says:

      Hi Frank,

      Well, I try to be philosophical about things, and indeed, we’re all mortal. It’s the kids being born that need to worry more than those of us in our 30s and 40s. Also, bear in mind that the movie is worst case scenario. The proverb “Unless we change direction, we’re likely to end up where we are heading” was what I had in mind.

  22. kweigand says:

    Dermot,
    Absolutely amazing! My jaw is on the floor! Excellent content and animation. Beautiful work, excellent logic flow. Took your animation course on Lynda.com and loved it! Followed your advice on character rigging. One question I have is how do you get your animations to look so crisp and smooth even though you have many things going on? I am trying to put together a 60 second animation done in the same amount of detail you have here, but it seems to bog down. any tips or references materials that you can turn me on to?

  23. Joe says:

    Astonishingly brilliant work.

  24. Thank you, very interesting content and a beautiful animation. I am definitely going to share it.

    Bartolo

  25. Porter says:

    Excellent work on a beautiful, and informal animation. This should be required viewing in all high schools, as people really are too ignorant to the subjects covered here. Great job again, congrats on finishing this project after so long.

  26. Y says:

    Dear Dermot,
    Thank you.
    Sincerly,
    Y

  27. HaroonGul says:

    I love flash and love animating and designing stuff in it…Only one word for this animation..Phenomenal

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